Tue, Jul 7, 2026 · 12:00 AM GMT · Lumen Field, Seattle
Based on previous scored predictions.
Expected goals estimate how many goals each team is statistically expected to score.
Illustrative match-state scenario based on the model, not a prediction of exact event timing.
Belgium are expected to create the stronger chance profile, with 1.6 expected goals compared with 1.3 for United States. Their advantage is built from the combined ranking, attack, defensive and recent-form signals in the model.
United States's best route is to keep the match level and turn lower-volume opportunities into high-impact moments. The 21% draw probability shows that the contest can remain competitive even with Belgium favored.
If Belgium score first, their projected win probability rises to approximately 65%. The forecast remains probabilistic, and a set piece, dismissal or early momentum swing can materially change the match state.
The statistical model projects 1.31 xG for United States against 1.62 for Belgium, yielding 32% / 21% / 47%. Predicted score: 1-1 (medium confidence).
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