Mon, Jun 15, 2026 · 05:00 PM GMT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Based on previous scored predictions.
Expected goals estimate how many goals each team is statistically expected to score.
Illustrative match-state scenario based on the model, not a prediction of exact event timing.
Spain are expected to create the stronger chance profile, with 2.9 expected goals compared with 0.6 for Cape Verde. Their advantage is built from the combined ranking, attack, defensive and recent-form signals in the model.
Cape Verde's best route is to keep the match level and turn lower-volume opportunities into high-impact moments. The 12% draw probability shows that the contest can remain competitive even with Spain favored.
If Spain score first, their projected win probability rises to approximately 94%. The forecast remains probabilistic, and a set piece, dismissal or early momentum swing can materially change the match state.
The statistical model projects 2.92 expected goals for Spain and 0.62 for Cape Verde, producing win probabilities of 83% for Spain, 12% for the draw, and 5% for Cape Verde. Spain emerge as the statistical favorite, driven primarily by their superior FIFA ranking and the balance of attacking and defensive ratings.
The single most probable exact score is 2-0. Exact-score probability and aggregate result probability answer different questions: one scoreline can be a draw while the sum of all Spain win scorelines remains the largest outcome bucket. Confidence is rated high based on the gap between the top outcome and the alternatives — this is a probabilistic projection, not a guarantee, and Cape Verde win in roughly 5% of simulated outcomes.
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