Fri, Jun 19, 2026 ยท 10:00 PM GMT ยท Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
Based on previous scored predictions.
Expected goals estimate how many goals each team is statistically expected to score.
Illustrative match-state scenario based on the model, not a prediction of exact event timing.
Morocco are expected to create the stronger chance profile, with 1.6 expected goals compared with 0.9 for Scotland. Their advantage is built from the combined ranking, attack, defensive and recent-form signals in the model.
Scotland's best route is to keep the match level and turn lower-volume opportunities into high-impact moments. The 25% draw probability shows that the contest can remain competitive even with Morocco favored.
If Morocco score first, their projected win probability rises to approximately 73%. The forecast remains probabilistic, and a set piece, dismissal or early momentum swing can materially change the match state.
The statistical model projects 0.87 expected goals for Scotland and 1.61 for Morocco, producing win probabilities of 20% for Scotland, 25% for the draw, and 55% for Morocco. Morocco emerge as the statistical favorite, driven primarily by their superior FIFA ranking and the balance of attacking and defensive ratings.
The single most probable exact score is 0-1. Exact-score probability and aggregate result probability answer different questions: one scoreline can be a draw while the sum of all Morocco win scorelines remains the largest outcome bucket. Confidence is rated high based on the gap between the top outcome and the alternatives โ this is a probabilistic projection, not a guarantee, and Scotland win in roughly 20% of simulated outcomes.
Footora provides AI-powered football predictions and match analysis for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not provide betting advice, gambling services, odds-making, financial advice, or guaranteed outcomes. Predictions are generated by statistical models and may be inaccurate.