Sun, Jun 14, 2026 · 11:00 PM GMT · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Based on previous scored predictions.
Expected goals estimate how many goals each team is statistically expected to score.
Illustrative match-state scenario based on the model, not a prediction of exact event timing.
Ecuador are expected to create the stronger chance profile, with 1.3 expected goals compared with 1.1 for Ivory Coast. Their advantage is built from the combined ranking, attack, defensive and recent-form signals in the model.
Ivory Coast's best route is to keep the match level and turn lower-volume opportunities into high-impact moments. The 28% draw probability shows that the contest can remain competitive even with Ecuador favored.
If Ecuador score first, their projected win probability rises to approximately 59%. The forecast remains probabilistic, and a set piece, dismissal or early momentum swing can materially change the match state.
The statistical model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ivory Coast and 1.32 for Ecuador, producing win probabilities of 31% for Ivory Coast, 28% for the draw, and 41% for Ecuador. Ecuador emerge as the statistical favorite, driven primarily by their superior FIFA ranking and the balance of attacking and defensive ratings.
The single most probable exact score is 1-1. Exact-score probability and aggregate result probability answer different questions: one scoreline can be a draw while the sum of all Ecuador win scorelines remains the largest outcome bucket. Confidence is rated low based on the gap between the top outcome and the alternatives — this is a probabilistic projection, not a guarantee, and Ivory Coast win in roughly 31% of simulated outcomes.
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